Ba(y)es’ Theorem
by Tommy McMaster
P.S. There were many more people who used Bayes’ Theorem throughout history and also those that used a variety of Bayesian views in numerous fields including philosophy. The fact that so many people who have encompassed both the humanities and the sciences developed and used this theorem is, I think, fitting with our journey to become physicians where we must also be both!
P.P.S. Lin-Manuel Miranda if you see this and are interested in collaborating on a medical humanities play I'll be at school at UTCOM for the next two years.
Image source: Unsplash
Before anyone else knew how to do joint probability
Other statisticians used to make fun of me
Without even knowing that I was a prodigy
So smart in the head that I thought this was easy
The theorem I made did not even please me
Hid my works under my bed until I died
My works were so immense that when my family found out
Supplied them to Richard Price and still no clout
He published my works after my dying day but now my brainchild was on its way
In order to develop this theory I...
Studied ball drops without even looking,
And guessed what my wife wanted before I was cooking
I gathered new data and improved my belief
But other statisticians kept giving my theorem beef
Like I said my work was published by Price,
I was his ghost writer, he knew that my work was nice
Later in France a man named Pierre-Simon Laplace
Proved my theorem looking at birth records of the human race
Said, “this theory works now let’s look into space”
Began to search for more natural laws
My theorem’s momentum could not be paused
Calculated the mass of Jupiter within 1 percent
Napoleon talked to him and said, “what did you invent?”
This method was used for artillery up to World War II
Now Bayes is really dropping some knowledge bombs on you!
Harold Jeffrey’s shook things up with me in 1939 (he studied geophysics)
And Cornfield (History major!) brought me stateside
Where my work was used to predict something troubling
That certain risk factors caused diseases to start doubling!
People continued to use my theorem for encryption
So good I know you don’t need a prescription
Because I’ve got that mathematical diction
That caused statistician’s minds so much friction
Bow your heads everybody because the Reverend is speaking
So forgive me for geeking out but there is
No need to check your faucet because I know it’s a leaky spout
My flows like water and my theorem can even predict the tides
You can’t run from this math and you certainly can’t hide
I’ve got two and a half centuries of data (how’s that for a sample size?) and a futuristic wit
Didn’t even publish my own work and yet you still use it!
Tommy McMaster is a third-year medical student at the UTCOMLS.
